Context: This initiative is part of the intergenerational Existential Security Threats -EXIST Board including Strategy X-EXIST with a series of high level ‘Plans’ enabled with digital solutions by the Global Futures Platform for Planet People and Peace - further partners are welcome to advance collaborative actions and to create tools for different audiences.
Runaway Climate Change Threatens Human Life, Survival and Existence:
• A Critical Era for Humanity: we are at a critical point in the survival of human civilisation, which for over 800,000 years has existed between -1°C to + 1°C.
• Current Policies and Actions are not Enough: 2024 was the hottest year on record with average global temperatures reaching 1.54° C above pre-industrial levels; current trajectories are likely to reach 2.6-3.1°C by 2100, this risks further temperature rises.
• Runaway Climate Change: was triggered between 1°C-3°C according to historical records, and threatens human security now, whilst risking our longer-term survival.
• Safe Thresholds are already being Exceeded: with increasing temperatures, droughts, wildfires and melting permafrost, our oceans, forests and land have reached tipping points which are releasing more warming emissions than they can absorb.
• Temperatures will Continue to Increase: as carbon sinks from the oceans, forests and land release more and more warming emissions that make the earth hotter and hotter.
• At the Threshold of the World’s Sixth Mass Extinction: 60% of biodiversity has already declined since the 1970s, and 1 million species are threatened with extinction.
• Previous Mass Extinctions: in the past occurred from 5°C upwards; temperatures for our grandchildren are projected to continue to rise up-to 10°C from 2100-2200.
• What we do now is Critical for our Survival: we have already reached thresholds for runaway climate change which risks the future of life and survival of humankind.
Risks to Human Survival from increases in the Earth’s Temperature
One Degree Celsius = Increased storms and wildfires; with risk of 3-14% extinction of species at 1.5 degrees C
Two Degrees Celsius = Disappearance of Arctic sea ice, widespread droughts; 3-18% of species risk extinction
Three Degrees Celsius = Global food crisis & Amazon Rainforest collapse; 3-29% of species risk extinction.
Four Degrees Celsius = China and India largely uninhabitable; 3-39% of species risk extinction
Five Degrees Celsius = Mass extinctions occur; 3-48% of species risk extinction
Six Degrees Celsius = Possible human extinction
(Adapted from Lynas M, 2020 and IPCC 2022)
A Plan for the Planet - Emergency 𝑪𝑷𝑹𝟐:
• C= COOL: Emergency Cooling of the Planet: avoid tipping points from escalating and creating runaway climate change by urgent methane and black carbon (soot) reduction; cool communities by reflecting light and heat with white (high albedo) paints, materials and plants; consider low-risk geoengineering overseen by monitoring and global governance.
• P= PLAN: Prevent and Prepare: utilise experts & AI to create smart, strategic multi-system plans based upon foresight modelling and warning alerts to identify early tipping points to reduce risks with cost-effective interventions that maximise benefits to people and planet.
• R= REMOVE: Rapid Reduction and Removal: of warming emissions by scaling renewable energy sources and by increasing energy efficiency; enhance the role of soil, oceans, forests and plants in their role as carbon sinks; reduce waste and energy rich food production with sustainable and regenerative food and agricultural systems, combined with effective carbon removal systems.
• R= RECOVER: Resilience, Repair and Recovery: stabilise our planet’s essential determinants of life including temperature, air, water, land and food systems, by clearing pollution and enhancing diversity and resilience to repair and recover our environments and ecosystems, enabled by indigenous communities and nature-based solutions.
• FLOURISH: Create Flourishing Communities: enable networks of diverse and intergenerational communities to design local to global liveable eco-systems that benefit people and the planet to secure the world that we want for the wellbeing of our future generations.
Recommended Indicators and Targets: 𝑪𝑷𝑹𝟐 to create a Flourishing Planet for All
COOL: aim to keep global average temperatures below 1.5°Celsius; monitor global reflection (albedo) patterns to adapt nature-based solutions, apply and test safe geological interventions.
PLAN: develop living strategic frameworks that can be applied at global, national and local levels.
REMOVE: aim to remove 500 gigatons of historic carbon emissions to achieve stable levels for human civilisation at 300-350ppm for CO2 and below10 gigatons of Methane emissions.
RECOVER: repair essential life systems (air, water, land and food) – and monitor progress with an index for the essential determinants of life and informed by Planetary Boundaries.
FLOURISH: create a multi-system index for planetary peace and sustainable well-being that can be applied at global, regional, national and community levels.
Going forward, we will need to coordinate low risk methods to keep our planet cool and remove historic emissions, to achieve stable temperatures for the survival of humanity.